From bottom to top analysis, from 2016 to 2018, the average number of cores of ordinary fiber optic cables collected by China Mobile showed a gradual increase trend. In the latest round of centralized mining, it has been increased to more than 30 cores. This shows that among the new demands for fiber optic cables, the demand from the end of the access network (driven by user coverage and consuming 2-12 cores of fiber optic cables) accounts for a relatively low amount, and is continuing to decline, so the growth of mobile FTTH users has peaked against fiber optic cables The impact of aggregate demand is limited. Fiber optic cable manufacturers
Investment strategy: The medium- and long-term demand of the industry is expected to continue to be high. Focus on both offensive and defensive, Tongding Interconnect (002491) with high flexibility of fiber optic cables and great growth potential of the subsidiary BYZO Networks (002491); optimistic about lower valuation, high flexibility in expansion of light rods in 2018, and leading technology in Zhongtian (600522) ; Optimistic that after getting rid of the bottleneck method of the casing method, Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487) is at the top of the total production capacity. Fiber optic cable manufacturers
Risk reminder: Demand for fiber optic cables continues to grow for several years, leading major suppliers to continue to expand production capacity. If the expansion exceeds expectations, it may lead to an oversupply. In the face of 5G construction, the operator 's pressure on capital expenditure may cause demand Decline; the development of wavelength division multiplexing technology and the price reduction of related optical communication equipment can further increase the unit optical fiber transmission capacity, so that fewer optical fiber cables can be used to meet traffic transmission requirements.
