The failure of 5G technology has affected the US communications industry, and it is not easy for 6G to restore the disadvantage
1. The U.S. communications industry is affected
Qualcomm, one of the leaders in the U.S. communications industry, released results showing that the revenue of Qualcomm's technology licensing division QTL in the first quarter of this year reached $1.58 billion; in 2016, Qualcomm's technology licensing division (QTL) achieved revenue of $7.664 billion, The average quarterly revenue reached 1.916 billion US dollars. By comparison, it can be seen that Qualcomm's patent fee income has dropped significantly, and the global average price of mobile phones has risen significantly compared with 2016 in recent years. Income has fallen.
The decline in Qualcomm's patent fee revenue is due to the fact that Qualcomm's patent advantages after the 4G era have continued to be weakened. The 4G standard was won by LTE, which was jointly launched by China and Europe. The UMB promoted by Qualcomm and the wimax pushed by Intel failed. As a result, China and Europe have obtained more 4G patents. As for 5G, Chinese companies have taken the lead. , Huawei ranks first in 5G patents.
At that time, Qualcomm obtained patent advantages in 2G and 3G because it monopolized CDMA patents. As long as CDMA patents were used, they had to pay Qualcomm patent fees. In the 2G era, CDMA was one of the two major 2G standards, and the three major 3G technologies were all based on CDMA. As the core technology, Qualcomm has established its patent fee charging model. Now that it does not have an advantage in 5G technology, the patent fee model is no longer sustainable.
In order to develop differentiated 5G technology, the United States pushes 5G millimeter wave technology. The mainstream 5G technology in the world is 5G centimeter wave technology. Because the base station coverage area of 5G millimeter wave technology is too small and the signal is easily blocked, American operators It is also unwilling to build a large-scale network. The US operator T-Mobil is only using 5G millimeter wave technology as a supplement to fixed-line broadband for the last 100 meters of fixed-line broadband access, while the operator's 5G for mobile communications is It is centimeter wave and low frequency 5G technology.
The failure of 5G technology has affected the US communication industry, and it is not easy for 6G to restore the disadvantage
Up to now, the number of 5G base stations built in the United States is quite limited, while the number of 5G base stations built in China accounts for as high as 60% of the total number of 5G base stations in the world. The slow progress of 5G commercialization has had a profound impact on technologies such as AI, autonomous driving, and the Internet of Things in the United States. , the American technology community is worried that this will hinder the development of emerging technologies in the United States. For this reason, the United States has begun to accelerate the development of 6G technology, hoping to achieve overtake.
2. It is not easy for the United States to gain an advantage in 6G technology
China has enjoyed the benefits of technological innovation from the development of 4G and 5G technologies. Therefore, China's communication industry has started the research and development of 6G early. As a result, China has taken a leading position in 6G patent applications.
The global 6G patent application data statistics from Japanese media in September 2021 show that China occupies 40.3% of the patent application volume, ranking first in the world; the United States ranks second with a share of 35.2%, and Japan ranks 9.2%. The 9% share ranks third, and it can be seen that the United States also does not have an advantage in 6G patents.
The development of mobile communication technology belongs to the evolution from generation to generation. This is the case with the development of previous generations of mobile communication technology. After all, technology cannot appear out of thin air. It must be improved based on the original technology, and operators do not want to completely abandon the original investment. , communication equipment manufacturers also hope that the original patents can be used, and with the joint efforts of all parties, they are all based on the original mobile communication technology to develop steadily.
This can be better reflected in 4G technology. At that time, Qualcomm in the United States launched UMB to continue the CDMA patent advantages. Intel launched wimax to try to continue the WiFi patent. China and Europe cooperated to promote LTE technology. Later, UMB failed, and Qualcomm did not. Intel's wimax is supported, but TD-LTE is supported by considering its own interests in mobile communication technology, and TD-LTE has thus defeated wimax.
The same is true for 5G technology. China and Europe have determined 5G centimeter wave technology, while the United States insists on developing 5G millimeter wave technology, trying to gain more voice. However, the end result is that only the United States and limited operators choose 5G millimeter wave technology. However, the results of commercial use today show that the stubborn behavior of the United States has led to the reluctance of US operators to apply 5G millimeter wave technology to mobile communications, but only use 5G millimeter wave technology as a supplement to fixed-line broadband. It is difficult for the United States to change the technology that is recognized by all by itself.
It will be similar in 6G technology. The United States is trying to change the existing mobile communication technology, which will change the interests of China and the European communication industry, and even affect the interests of Qualcomm. Therefore, the United States must obtain patent advantages in 6G technology. It is not easy. In the end, all parties may have to continue to cooperate, carry out reasonable distribution of benefits, and promote technological development.
